Housing and retail advocates say they are seeing darkening clouds when it comes to the U.S. economy. 

Consumer confidence dropped to a four-year low and expectations for the future economy fell to a 12-year low, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The declines were across the board of the Consumer Confidence Index, which is derived from data on reported consumer sentiments collected by the Conference Board. 

The Index consists of two pieces: how consumers feel about their present situation and about their expected situation. The Present Situation Index decreased 3.6 points from 138.1 to 134.5, and the Expectation Situation Index dropped 9.6 points from 74.8 to 65.2, the lowest level since February 2013.  

“This is the second consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year,” NAHB said in its release. 

The National Retail Federation recently shared data from the U.S. Census showing modest month-over-month retail sales growth in February, which its officials attributed to consumer worries over inflation and policy decisions in Washington, D.C., despite an otherwise “healthy” national economic indicators such as low unemployment, steady income growth and other household finances. 

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in February were up 0.2% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 3.1% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 1.2% month over month and an increase of 3.9% year over year in January. 

“Lower-than-expected consumer spending in the first couple of months of the year likely reflected payback for very strong spending in the fourth quarter and weather-related events since then,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist, in a release. “Moreover, these results show that households are apprehensive and carefully navigating lingering inflation and turmoil related to changing economic policies. 

The Tax Foundation has indicated that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% tariffs on China would shrink GDP by 0.4% and increase taxes on consumers by $830 in 2025, according to a release from the Washington Retail Association. 

“As long as these tariffs are in place, American businesses, consumers and the economy will bear the brunt through higher prices on everyday goods,” the state association said in a release.