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Home » Study: U.S. firms, consumers shoulder nearly all costs of tariffs

Study: U.S. firms, consumers shoulder nearly all costs of tariffs

Stacked shipping containers at the Port of Seattle.

Cargo containers sit stacked up on the docks at the Port of Seattle. Billions of dollars of Washington agricultural products are shipped internationally every year and the volatile trade environment in the first part of 2025 has caused uncertainty among many in agriculture.

Courtesy Washington State Department of Agriculture
January 20, 2026
TCAJOB Staff

The tariffs on international goods that the Trump administration has said would extract substantial revenues from foreign governments and companies has done quite the opposite, according to a German economic policy think tank. 

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy analyzed more than 25 million shipment records covering a total value of almost $4 trillion in U.S. imports, according to a release. Those imports generated about $200 billion in customs revenue for the federal government. 

And 96% of those custom duties were paid by U.S.-based firms and their consumers, the study found. 

“The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth. The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill,” said Julian Hinz, the institute’s research director and one of the study’s authors. 

The tariffs did sharply cut into imports coming to the U.S., particularly from India and Brazil which were hit with 50% tariffs. However, companies in those countries largely maintained their pricing and searched for new markets to send products to make up for cuts in their U.S. markets, researchers said. 

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    KEYWORDS January 2026
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