Retail experts say data from the country’s major ports shows that businesses are taking advantage of this summer’s pause in tariff increases on China by the Trump administration, which could contribute to another challenge. 

While still below levels seen during last summer, imports are expected to reach 2.01 million TEU or Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent, in June, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). That would be up slightly from May’s projected 1.91 million TEU. Imports are forecast to stay above or near 2 million TEU through August before dropping sharply again in September and through the remainder of the year. 

“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in a statement. “Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford.” 

However, national trade groups are sounding the alarm over potential supply chain disruptions reminiscent of those seen during the pandemic during the pause.  

“The 90-day suspensions on reciprocal tariffs (ending July 9) and China tariffs (ending August 12) have prompted a surge in import activity, contributing to rising freight rates and early signs of port congestion,” according to a release from the Washington Retail Association. 

The state and national retail groups along with other business organizations, have requested Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Federal Maritime Commission Chair Louis Sola to work with industry stakeholders to avoid widespread port delays and economic ripple effects.