Data recently released by an educational research group finds that fewer high school students expect to earn a college degree. 

According to the Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Education, the research arm of the Council for Opportunity in Education (COE), 44% of students surveyed in 2022 reported expecting to earn a bachelor’s degree, down sharply from 72% in 2002, according to a release. 

Researchers also found persistent disparities by parental education level. In 2002, 60% of first-generation students – those whose parents had only a high school diploma – aspired to earn a bachelor’s degree. By 2022, that number had fallen to just 33%. Among students with at least one parent holding a bachelor’s degree, aspirations dropped from 83% in 2002 to 53% in 2022. 

“The decline in college aspirations among first-generation students is deeply concerning,” said Kimberly Jones, president of the Council for Opportunity in Education, in a statement. “These students have long faced systemic barriers to higher education, and this data underscores the urgent need for renewed investment in outreach, support, and affordability – including through programs like TRIO and the Pell Grant. We must ensure that every student, regardless of background, can envision a future that includes college and has the resources to make it a reality.” 

The report, titled “Future Education Expectations of High School Students Decline to the Lowest Level in 20 Years for Both First-Generation and Continuing Generation Students” is available online.