After starting off the year on what looked like stable ground, Bonneville Power Administration’s financial outlook is looking less secure. 

The power provider and transmitter now expects to end the year $49 million below its target of $509 million, compared to the Q2 forecast of $15 million below target, according to a release. The primary driver, continuing from the previous quarter, is lower-than-expected transmission revenues resulting from customer utilities deferring point-to-point transmission service. 

Power Services – the sector that generates power from BPA’s numerous hydroelectric dams – is forecast to end the year above its net revenue target by $38 million. However, that is largely due to the $40 million surcharge triggered at the end of FY 2025 when the division’s financial reserves fell below the lower threshold of BPA’s financial reserves policy. Court-ordered spill operations at the dams aimed at helping endangered fish also are reducing revenue, impacting projections.  

And the agency is again facing challenges when it comes to how much cash it has on hand. BPA expects to end the year with 65 to 97 days cash on hand. That is above the target of 60 days, but the lower range of Power Service’s forecast for days cash falls below the 60-day lower threshold. 

That creates the potential for triggering another financial reserves policy surcharge, which could charge customer utilities tens of millions of dollars to further restore BPA’s financial reserves.