Bonneville Power Administration’s financial performance is a mixed bag at the halfway point of its fiscal year but its leaders say the agency is still on track to meet most of its end-of-year targets. 

BPA’s Transmission Services net revenues are $89 million below the end-of-year target of $226 million. Power Services is currently forecast to end the year $71 million above target, partly thanks to better-than-expected water conditions. 

But a lot could still change in the next six months, officials said, and BPA’s power generating operations will be limited due to a court order requiring it to spill more water to protect endangered fish species. 

“There is still significant uncertainty remaining at this time of year with respect to water conditions, market prices and other variables,” Tom McDonald, the agency’s chief financial officer, said in a statement. “Our net revenue picture may change significantly, which could also impact some of our other financial metrics, including our financial reserves. A summer heat wave event could result in unexpected costs of $300 million or more, and uncertainty has only increased due to court-ordered Columbia River system operations.” 

For the time being, the agency is projected to avoid needing to charge the utilities it serves an additional surcharge to replenish its reserves up to the equivalent of 60 days cash on hand as it did for this current fiscal year. 

• The Q2 forecast for agency end-of-year reserves for risk is projected to be between $590 million to $755 million, equivalent to 74 to 95 days cash on hand. 
• From the business line perspective, Power’s reserves for risk are forecast to be between $370 million to $466 million, or 65 to 82 days cash on hand, at the end of this fiscal year.  
• Transmission’s reserves for risk are forecast to range from $220 million to $289 million, or 96 to 126 days cash on hand, at the end of this fiscal year. 

BPA’s debt-to-asset ratio is forecast to end the year at 80%, which is above the target of 79.6%, making the target red. This is largely the result of the significant borrowing needed to increase the output of Energy Northwest's Columbia Generating Station. The money is not scheduled to be spent until the 2027 fiscal year. 

However, officials said the agency retains sufficient borrowing authority, which is critical for BPA to support capital projects. A year ago BPA officials announced a slew of 23 transmission infrastructure projects estimated at $5 billion planned throughout Washington, Oregon and northern California, including in and around the Tri-Cities.