Fuel commitment contracts. Streamlined reactor design approvals. Plans to establish campuses aimed at supporting the full lifecycle of a nuclear-powered economy.

Hardly a week goes by where the Trump administration is not making an announcement regarding its nuclear power agenda.

DOE heralded the arrival of the golden era of nuclear in America in July.

“We’ve achieved things no one thought possible in such a short span of time,” the U.S. Department of Energy said in a statement in May. “We’ve seen a wave of enthusiasm and optimism surge into a U.S. nuclear energy industry that was previously starved for progress and strangled by bureaucratic red tape.”

Tri-City officials see it, too, and say the demand for more power has begun to tip the scales of public opinion toward embracing nuclear power as a viable energy solution.

Yet doubts have surfaced about whether the pronouncements and plans will become reality.

A recent report in the Washington Post said “industry executives involved in trying to make the projects happen say President Donald Trump’s plan to boost nuclear power is long on aspiration and light on binding agreements.” The New York Times reported members of Trump’s cabinet and other allies are poised to benefit financially from many of the deals, regardless of how long they take to materialize.

And as for those Nuclear Lifecycle Campuses that federal officials have touted to solve nuclear fuel supply chain and disposal concerns?

“I would put the chance of at least one campus eventually delivering the genuinely integrated version – enrichment or fabrication, reactors or industrial users, reprocessing and a long-term waste solution – closer to 30-40%,” said James Walker, CEO of NANO Nuclear, in an email to the Tri-Cities Area Journal of Business. “The likelihood of several campuses reaching the full-glossy version is lower still.”

NANO is a publicly-listed New York City-based nuclear energy company that is developing its own microreactor technologies and also looking for solutions to fuel fabrication and transportation challenges.

But those doubts aren’t worrying nuclear industry and economic development officials connected to the Tri-Cities. While there is still a lot of work ahead, they note that there is already a lot of private sector money and demand fueling what will make the region a major player in the nuclear landscape.

“Not every nuclear project being discussed today will ultimately be built. But the future of the industry shouldn’t be judged by any single project, financing arrangement or policy initiative,” said Tony Robinson, CEO of Framatome Inc., in a statement to the Journal. “What matters is the broader market signal: utilities investing in the existing fleet, demand for reliable, carbon-free electricity is growing, new reactor technologies are advancing and investment in the nuclear supply chain is increasing.”

The nuclear fuel producer Framatome has a Richland facility and expansion plans to produce the next generation of fuel arrays to power nuclear reactors.

Forward progress

Industry and federal energy officials have celebrated reaching the Trump administration’s goals for nuclear power over the past year or so: numerous executive orders regarding everything from reforming the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to strengthening supply chains; bringing formerly shuttered nuclear power plants back online; and near-term deployment of advanced light-water small modular nuclear reactors, or SMRs, in the U.S.

Most recently, the Trump administration lauded four advanced reactors reaching criticality – that is, self-sustaining nuclear reaction – surpassing a set goal of three.

A recent deal granting Saudi Arabia access to U.S. nuclear technology was called a “landmark step” that “expands opportunities for U.S. industry and workers” by Dan Sumner, chief of Westinghouse, according to the New York Times.

The Canadian-owned U.S. company is behind the AP1000, a large-scale commercial reactor currently being deployed ahead of newer reactor designs being available. Last fall federal officials announced a deal where 10 AP1000 would be deployed with financing from Japan, according to Nuclear Engineering International. 

More smoke than substance?

Despite all that progress, critics say there’s more smoke than substance to the administration’s nuclear ambitions.

Some cited by the New York Times say the Saudi nuclear technology deal comes at a time when Trump Media & Technology Group, host of social medial platform Truth Social, is seeking to add nuclear energy to its portfolio. It plans to merge with a nuclear fusion startup that has won financial support from DOE.

The president’s sons have also made significant investments in nuclear energy and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has played a role in past discussions with Saudi Arabia, both for the administration and the Trump family's business interests.

And that effort to deploy 10 Westinghouse reactors? That’s being initially paid for by a $17.5 billion federal loan until deals are inked with Japan and the utilities that receive them. But Japan has committed no funds to the project and no customers for the reactors have been identified, according to reports cited by Nuclear Engineering International.

NANO Nuclear’s Walker is wary of the administration’s assertion the planned nuclear lifecycle campuses, where everything from power plant components and fuel will be manufactured and spent fuel disposed, will be the economic boon they’ve projected. What’s more, no deals have been finalized for any such site.

“The economic claims deserve a sizeable discount at this stage,” he said. “DOE is advertising potential benefits of up to $50 billion of capital investment, $10 billion in state and local tax revenue and nearly 25,000 jobs per campus, but these are best-case estimates rather than committed projects.”

Need for power

TRIDEC’s Karl Dye said he understands how some may think nuclear power is being artificially boosted. Half a century ago nuclear was far from a financially feasible option for energy generation, said the president and CEO of Tri-City Development Council, or TRIDEC.

But growing demand for energy from the typical consumer all the way up to commercial and industrial users, specifically data centers, makes nuclear power a workable solution, said Dye and David Reeploeg, TRIDEC’s vice president for federal programs.

“Even with all the other uncertainties, as a country we know we need power,” Reeploeg said.

And the industry developments tied to the Tri-Cities are tangible. The planned four SMRs out at Energy Northwest’s Columbia Generating Station have already received $400 million in private investment from Amazon. That project also has the strongest legs, with construction on track to start within the next five years.

On the fuel side, Framatome’s Richland plant has routinely seen its plans to expand or upgrade its manufacturing capabilities receive approval from federal regulators. Those are steps the company wouldn’t be taking if the market wasn’t dictating it.

“At Framatome, we see that demand firsthand through the work our customers are asking us to do and the investments we’re making to support them,” Robinson said. “There are challenges ahead, but this industry will ultimately be measured by execution, not announcements. What we see today gives me confidence in nuclear energy’s growing role in America’s energy future.”